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Fuel price to fall by 3 to 5% as year ends – IES

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The Institute of Energy Security (IES) has said the price of fuel is expected to fall further as the year comes to an end.

For the local fuel market, the IES said in a statement on Thursday, 16 December 2021 signed by Mr Fritz Moses, Research Analyst, that “prices decreased marginally within the window under review”.

GOIL, the largest market shareholder amongst the Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), reduced its margins on the Price Build-Up (PBU), “eventually resulting in reduced prices at their pumps, as part of measures to cushion customers from the rising fuel prices and following demands by the Ghana Private Road Transport Unions (GPRTU) for reduced fuel prices”.

The IES observed that other OMCs also followed suit.

The current national average price of fuel per litre at the pump is pegged at GH¢6.58 for both gasoline and Gasoil, representing a decrease of 2% from the previous window’s national average price of GH¢6.71 per litre, the Institute noted.

It said for the pricing window under review, Benab Oil, Cash Oil, Goodness Oil, Top Oil, Zen Petroleum, Star Oil and Frimps Oil sold the “least-priced fuel on the local market” while Shell (Vivo), Total, Engen, GOIL, Allied, Petrosol, and Puma had the “highest-priced fuel on the market”, according to IES’ market scan.

On the world market, the IES said for the window under assessment, the price of the international benchmark, Brent crude, averaged about $81.01 per barrel, “representing an increase of 0.98% from the previous window’s average price of $80.25 per barrel mark”.

Concerns about the pandemic, the Institute mentioned, “weighed on oil prices during the recently closed trading window, following reports that the Omicron variant was set to have a negative impact on oil consumption”.

“These findings are in spite of reports that the variety in question causes far fewer symptoms among those infected than previous varieties”.

However, it said there is “still some concern on the market about the possibility of more COVID-19 measures that might” result in the cutting of “oil consumption going forward”.

“On a global scale, oil prices began to rise shortly after the opening of this window but gains were limited by investor concerns about oil demand following the reimposition of new restrictions in Europe and Asia, in response to an increase in coronavirus cases, which were primarily caused by the Omicron variant of the virus”.

It noted that Brent prices have received a “confidence boost, as a result of the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to increase output by another 400,000 barrels per day in January”.

The market, IES observed, has reacted “positively to the decision, indicating that it is a favourable development”.

The prices of finished products as monitored on Standard and Poor’s worldwide Platts platform, indicate that the price of the international commodities; gasoline (Petrol) and Gasoil (Diesel), have fallen over the period.

The gasoline price declined by 11.68% to $685.68 per metric tonne at the closing of the window, down from $776.36 per metric tonne earlier in the previous window.

Gasoil price also fell by 8.64% to close trading at $628.28 per metric tonne, down from $687.70 per metric tonne in the previous window.

Additionally, the IES said data collated by its economic desk from the foreign exchange (forex) market shows the cedi “depreciated marginally against the U.S. dollar”.

“The exchange rate stands at GH¢6.21 against the US dollar, representing a 1% depreciation from the previous rate of GH¢6.15”.

It said with the 0.98% increase in the price of the international benchmark, Brent crude, together with the 11.68% decrease in gasoline price and 8.64% decrease in Gasoil price; the institute projects a “3 to 5% downward adjustment in the price of fuel per litre at the various pumps despite the marginal depreciation of the cedi of 1%”. 

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